Commentary on COVID-19 cases in Leicester

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5MLUw1CMsw Leicester went into lockdown in early July, with the Statutory Instrument setting out these restrictions published on 3 July (The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (Leicester) Regulations 2020) just before the loosening of restrictions elsewhere in the country. Public Health England has published an analysis of what is known about the Leiecester outbreak. Diagrams are …

Thinking of Drinking?

The pubs open on Saturday in England, allowing people to mix in confined spaces and potentially transmit COVID-19. In Friday’s Number 10 briefing, the Chief Medical Officer said”The biggest risks are when lots of people from completely different households are brought together in close proximity indoors. And whether that’s in a pub or a cricket …

Which English city could be next for a Leicester-like lockdown? 2 July New Analysis

Public Health England has today released the second tranche of data for COVID tests. This is the most comprehensive data we have for tests as it includes Pillar 1 tests (those conducted by PHE and NHS hospitals) and Pillar 2 tests (those conducted by private companies under NHS Test and Trace). Some journalists had been …

Locations of High COVID Activity (Week 26 Data) – Where could the next Leicester-like lockdown be?

In the week 26 Public Health England surveillance report, this map was produced. PHE Surveillance Report 25 June Figure 9: Weekly rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population tested under Pillar 1 and 2, by upper-tier local authority, England (box shows enlarged maps of London area) Leicester is subject to a local ‘lockdown’, but what …

The Lack of COVID Data: And Why It’s A Problem

Following the local ‘lockdown’ in Leicester, lots of people – including newspaper editors – are anxious to answer the question ‘are we next?’. The lack of reliable Government data poses two problems: firstly, making towns look worse than they are; and secondly making people question why they are in Lockdown. Data in the UK is …

Explaining the Leicester COVID-19 Outbreak

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPOUIa9Q6aA Full playlist of BBC Interviews here The Home Secretary, when questioned on the BBC Andrew Marr show announced on Sunday 28 June ‘there is going to be a Leicester lockdown?”So, there will be support going into Leicester … with local flare-ups, it’s right that we have a local solution’ But looking at the public …

Beware of the Survivorship Bias of Politicians: COVID-19 Letter Published in The Financial Times

The news that UK business secretary Alok Sharma has been tested for Covid-19 highlighted the issue of survivorship bias, that is the systematic overestimation of performance and underestimation of risk by ignoring non-survivors. In the early stages of the epidemic, the risk perception of politicians broadly matched that of the general population. However, if the …

Simulation Modelling Community Response to COVID-19

Our paper in Journal of Simulation ‘How simulation modelling can help reduce the impact of COVID-19’ setting out how simulation modelling can help in the fight against COVID-19 and subsequent epidemics and pandemics. Click here to access the paper. ABSTRACT Modelling has been used extensively by all national governments and the World Health Organisation in …

Muddling Through Does Not Work for Pandemics: COVID-19 Letter Published in The Financial Times

In 1959, Charles Lindblom wrote The Science of “Muddling Through”, advocating an incremental approach to public policy and management. “Muddling through” does not work for pandemics. The science of pandemics is dominated by epidemiology, not behavioral science. The delay between policy decisions (or indecisions) and the resultant high UK death rate needs tracing back from …