Public Health England have tonight (2 July 2020) released data for the total number of people who have positive COVID-19 results at a local authority level. The data is at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=utlas&map=rate. Critically, these include both Pillar 1 (NHS and PHE labs) and Pillar 2 (NHS Test & Trace commercial labs) data. Here are the cumulative …
Continue reading "Top Local Authorities for COVID-19 Positive Tests"
Public Health England has today released the second tranche of data for COVID tests. This is the most comprehensive data we have for tests as it includes Pillar 1 tests (those conducted by PHE and NHS hospitals) and Pillar 2 tests (those conducted by private companies under NHS Test and Trace). Some journalists had been …
In the week 26 Public Health England surveillance report, this map was produced. PHE Surveillance Report 25 June Figure 9: Weekly rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population tested under Pillar 1 and 2, by upper-tier local authority, England (box shows enlarged maps of London area) Leicester is subject to a local 'lockdown', but what …
Following the local 'lockdown' in Leicester, lots of people - including newspaper editors - are anxious to answer the question 'are we next?'. The lack of reliable Government data poses two problems: firstly, making towns look worse than they are; and secondly making people question why they are in Lockdown. Data in the UK is …
Continue reading "The Lack of COVID Data: And Why It’s A Problem"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPOUIa9Q6aA Full playlist of BBC Interviews here The Home Secretary, when questioned on the BBC Andrew Marr show announced on Sunday 28 June 'there is going to be a Leicester lockdown?''So, there will be support going into Leicester ... with local flare-ups, it's right that we have a local solution' But looking at the public …
Continue reading "Explaining the Leicester COVID-19 Outbreak"
The news that UK business secretary Alok Sharma has been tested for Covid-19 highlighted the issue of survivorship bias, that is the systematic overestimation of performance and underestimation of risk by ignoring non-survivors. In the early stages of the epidemic, the risk perception of politicians broadly matched that of the general population. However, if the …
Our paper in Journal of Simulation 'How simulation modelling can help reduce the impact of COVID-19' setting out how simulation modelling can help in the fight against COVID-19 and subsequent epidemics and pandemics. Click here to access the paper. ABSTRACT Modelling has been used extensively by all national governments and the World Health Organisation in …
Continue reading "Simulation Modelling Community Response to COVID-19"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78zZVRx2RRU
In 1959, Charles Lindblom wrote The Science of "Muddling Through", advocating an incremental approach to public policy and management. "Muddling through" does not work for pandemics. The science of pandemics is dominated by epidemiology, not behavioral science. The delay between policy decisions (or indecisions) and the resultant high UK death rate needs tracing back from …
Interview with BBC Radio Leicester on the exponential growth phase of the pandemic in the UK (note the date of the recording is 23 March 2020) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7O1SDUeEhZ8&
